In the European Cup playoffs, some games are likely to be decided by penalty kicks. There has been a lot of discussion about whether the order of the team’s free throws will affect the outcome of the game. As Matthias Sutter of the Collective Commodity Institute discovered. Max Planck in Bonn and three colleagues in Düsseldorf do not count the order, but the result of the coin toss before the penalty shoot-out.
“Head or tail?” is the question before each penalty shootout. The two captains must place a bet on the result of the referee’s coin toss. The winning captain can choose whether his team is first or second. Convey advantages. To this end, UEFA has tried various methods in less conspicuous matches to relieve the pressure on players who must kill in seconds.
It seems that many captains are not so picky about this. An analysis of 207 penalty kicks in 14 international football championships (including the World and European Championships) between July 2003 and August 2017 showed that only 56 of the 100 captains decided to leave. Initially, the remaining 44% let their goalkeeper score a goal first. Researchers speculate that if one’s own goalkeeper is considered better than another team’s goalkeeper and is more likely to make a waiver, then the second shot may be a strategic decision.
As a result, the score confirmed the previous study that there is no benefit to penalty kicks.In the analyzed game, the winning rate of the first team to play was only 51%, and the coin toss worked: about 60% of the captains won the coin tossed team to win. The next penalty shootout. If the captain’s decision does not work, this is much better than the expected 50% chance.
It is therefore worth paying close attention to the result of the coin toss before the penalty kick. The outcome of the game may depend on it.